A group of 3,146 earth scientists surveyed around the world overwhelmingly agree that in the past 200-plus years, mean global temperatures have been rising, and that human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures.
Peter Doran, University of Illinois at Chicago associate professor of earth and environmental sciences, along with former graduate student Maggie Kendall Zimmerman, conducted the survey late last year.
The findings appear today in the publication Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union.
In trying to overcome criticism of earlier attempts to gauge the view of earth scientists on global warming and the human impact factor, Doran and Kendall Zimmerman sought the opinion of the most complete list of earth scientists they could find, contacting more than 10,200 experts around the world listed in the 2007 edition of the American Geological Institute's Directory of Geoscience Departments.
Experts in academia and government research centers were e-mailed invitations to participate in the on-line poll conducted by the website questionpro.com. Only those invited could participate and computer IP addresses of participants were recorded and used to prevent repeat voting. Questions used were reviewed by a polling expert who checked for bias in phrasing, such as suggesting an answer by the way a question was worded. The nine-question survey was short, taking just a few minutes to complete.
Two questions were key: have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levels, and has human activity been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures.
About 90 percent of the scientists agreed with the first question and 82 percent the second.
In analyzing responses by sub-groups, Doran found that climatologists who are active in research showed the strongest consensus on the causes of global warming, with 97 percent agreeing humans play a role. Petroleum geologists and meteorologists were among the biggest doubters, with only 47 and 64 percent respectively believing in human involvement. Doran compared their responses to a recent poll showing only 58 percent of the public thinks human activity contributes to global warming.
"The petroleum geologist response is not too surprising, but the meteorologists' is very interesting," he said. "Most members of the public think meteorologists know climate, but most of them actually study very short-term phenomenon."
He was not surprised, however, by the near-unanimous agreement by climatologists.
"They're the ones who study and publish on climate science. So I guess the take-home message is, the more you know about the field of climate science, the more you're likely to believe in global warming and humankind's contribution to it."
Doran and Kendall Zimmerman conclude that "the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes." The challenge now, they write, is how to effectively communicate this to policy makers and to a public that continues to mistakenly perceive debate among scientists.
University of Illinois at Chicago
Anthropic Global Warming
Humans have lived in energy (fire) driven societies for some 12,000 years since the end of the last ice age. I do, however, think that a large degree of global warming can be attributed to natural elements such as volcanism, artic methane plumes, and solar cycles. Perhaps Birkeland Currents and Geomagnetic Field fluctuations could have some effect on the net temperature equilibruim too.
For one thing, I would like to see some actual science being done on this matter though, instead of polling or politics, well perhaps polling is some sort of start though. Nonetheless, the majority is often wrong in areas that have not been very much researched, even among scientists.
Get over it
The science is done the debate is over. If you won't accept the best science the world has to offer nothing will change your mind.
Don't feed your inner Troll.
In your case stopping feeding it.
Get Over What!? I'm not making this up!
British and Russian Scientists find Hundreds of Methane Plumes in the Arctic Circle .... the article states that these methane plumes (from methane hydrates) date back to the end of the last ice age and have been warming up the global climate ever since. I figure that the petroleum geologists know more about natural emissions of hydrocarbons into the air than perhaps the rest of the lesser informed science communitty. Unless you somehow can prove that these plumes don't have a huge effect on global climate, I will gladly rest my case that mankind is not the sole contributer to global warming but that natural sources do indeed exist in abundence.
Here is some more where that came from: The Methane Time Bomb
I'm well aware of the
I'm well aware of the methane plumes, hyrdates, peat bogs etc. Which due to human influences in this instance that can put us past the tipping point.
Stop clutching at straws looking for excuses not to cut your pollution footprint.
Don't feed your inner Troll.
Methane Plumes
Those methane plumes date back to the glaciers of the end of the last ice age though. Don't get me wrong though, I'm all for fusion powered cities and I have seen the absolute worst of pollution from the coal power plants when I was in China. Still, those plumes put out methane which has a 1/2 life of about 7 years in the atmosphere, which degrades by degrading the ozone layer. It would be better to burn these methane plumes than to allow them to eat the ozone layer any more, IMO. Of course, that wouldn't change a thing as far as greenhouse gases goes, perhaps replanting the rainforests is a smart way to go though.